Ligue 1 · Feb 21, 2026 20:05
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
Metz
PWR 22
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
3 - 0
FT
Metz
PWR 22
63%
21%
16%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
Home Win
1X2 · PREMIUM tier, 77% conf, draw risk 19%
86%
accuracy
1.5x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Paris Saint Germain Win
Score
5-1
Confidence
77%
TierPREMIUM
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (14%)2-0 (11%)1-0 (6%)3-1 (5%)2-1 (4%)1-1 (2%)
CORRECT 3-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
60%
60%
Under 2.5
40%
BTTS
No
No 32%
Over 3.5
67%
67%
Team Comparison
65Attack32
76Defense31
Goals/G
2.21.1
Conc/G
0.82.3
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Paris Saint Ge…
WLWWD
STABLE
Metz
LDLLL
STABLE
Key Players
Paris Saint Ge…
Nuno Mendes
1G
Bradley Barcola
1G1A
Senny Mayulu
1G
Vitinha
Warren Zaïre-Em…
1A
Metz
Koffi Kouao
1G1A
Habib Diallo
1G
Benjamin Stambo…
Boubacar Traoré
Gauthier Hein
Stability Protocol
DecisionBET
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk19%
Accuracy77%
AWAY_LEAKINGPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Full data available (Tier 1)Elite league - reduced thresholdâś“ Passed (4 independent rules, 77% confidence)
Expected Goals (xG)
3.72
Paris Saint Ge…vs
0.39
MetzGoal Probability
Paris Saint…
0
2%
1
9%
2
17%
3
21%
4
19%
Metz
0
68%
1
26%
2
5%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (11%)4-0 (11%)5-0 (9%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (6%)4-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 48% | 52% | - |
| 5.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Paris Saint…+17
Gap#18
Metz
WR 83% 57 pts
WR 8% 13 pts
Paris Saint Ge…
14.0%
| Feb 17 | Paris S… v AS Mona… | 2-3 |
| Feb 13 | Paris S… v Rennes … | 3-1 |
| Feb 08 | Paris S… v Olympiq… | 5-0 |
| Feb 01 | Paris S… v Strasbo… | 1-2 |
| Jan 28 | Paris S… v Newcast… | 1-1 |
| Jan 23 | Paris S… v Auxerre | 0-1 |
| Jan 20 | Paris S… v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 16 | Paris S… v Lille | 3-0 |
| Jan 12 | Paris S… v Paris FC | 0-1 |
| Jan 08 | Paris S… v Olympiq… | 2-2 |
Metz
2.0%
| Feb 15 | Metz v Auxerre | 1-3 |
| Feb 06 | Metz v Lille | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Metz v Angers | 1-0 |
| Jan 25 | Metz v Olympiq… | 2-5 |
| Jan 18 | Metz v Strasbo… | 2-1 |
| Jan 11 | Metz v Montpel… | 0-4 |
| Jan 04 | Metz v Lorient | 1-1 |
| Dec 13 | Metz v Paris S… | 2-3 |
| Dec 07 | Metz v Auxerre | 3-1 |
| Nov 28 | Metz v Rennes … | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Dec 13, 2025 | Metz | 2-3 | Paris Saint G… |
| May 19, 2024 | Metz | 0-2 | Paris Saint G… |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Paris Saint G… | 3-1 | Metz |
| May 21, 2022 | Paris Saint G… | 5-0 | Metz |
| Sep 22, 2021 | Metz | 1-2 | Paris Saint G… |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Metz | 1-3 | Paris Saint G… |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Paris Saint G… | 1-0 | Metz |
Decision Breakdown
S70+DR<22 (82.1%)S75+DR<25 (81.8%)M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)HWR75+DR<22 (80.6%)M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%)GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)M85+S60 (75.3%)HWR80+DR<25 (75.0%)TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)CS65+DR<30 (68.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
95%
Market
30%
Key Factors
Paris Saint Germain in strong form (3W in last 5)
Metz struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.