Primeira Liga · Mar 15, 2026 20:30
FC Porto
PWR 35
Moreirense
PWR 35
FC Porto
PWR 35
4-1
predicted
Moreirense
PWR 35
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
FC Porto Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (22%)1-0 (22%)3-0 (15%)0-0 (11%)2-1 (4%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
63%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
22%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
FC Porto
DLWWL
STABLE
Moreirense
LLDDD
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)H2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (26.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
FC Portovs
0.20
MoreirenseGoal Probability
FC Porto
0
13%
1
27%
2
27%
3
18%
4
9%
Moreirense
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (18%)2-0 (17%)3-0 (11%)0-0 (9%)1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% | - |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 10% | 91% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 4% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
FC Porto+6
Gap#7
Moreirense
WR 83% 66 pts
WR 31% 35 pts
FC Porto
10.0%
| Mar 08 | FC Porto v Benfica | 2-2 |
| Mar 03 | FC Porto v Sportinā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | FC Porto v Arouca | 3-1 |
| Feb 22 | FC Porto v Rio Aveā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 18 | FC Porto v Spartakā¦ | 3-1 |
| Feb 15 | FC Porto v Nacional | 0-1 |
| Feb 09 | FC Porto v Sportinā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 04 | FC Porto v Artsakh | 3-0 |
| Feb 02 | FC Porto v Casa Piā¦ | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | FC Porto v Rodina ā¦ | 0-1 |
Moreirense
6.0%
| Mar 09 | Moreireā¦ v Benficaā¦ | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 0-3 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Nacional | 1-1 |
| Mar 02 | Moreireā¦ v Felgueiā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Pacos Fā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Moreireā¦ v FC Portā¦ | 0-3 |
| Feb 22 | Moreireā¦ v LusitĆ¢nā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Moreireā¦ v UniĆ£o dā¦ | 2-4 |
| Feb 21 | Moreireā¦ v Benficaā¦ | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Oct 27, 2025 | Moreirense | 1-2 | FC Porto |
| May 02, 2025 | FC Porto | 3-1 | Moreirense |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Moreirense | 0-1 | FC Porto |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Moreirense | 1-1 | FC Porto |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Moreirense | 2-4 | FC Porto |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Moreirense | 0-3 | FC Porto |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Moreirense | 0-3 | FC Porto |
| Dec 15, 2024 | FC Porto | 0-0 | Moreirense |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Moreirense | 2-1 | FC Porto |
| Nov 03, 2024 | FC Porto | 1-1 | Moreirense |
Decision Breakdown
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
91%
Standings
72%
Market
50%
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.