Primeira Liga · Mar 15, 2026 18:00
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
Rio Ave FC
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
43%
25%
32%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Rio Ave FC Win
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (14%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (10%)0-0 (9%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (9%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS
No 46%
Over 3.5
29%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Rio Ave FC
WDLLL
STABLE
Estrela da Ama…
DDLLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk39%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 33% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 2/5 draws (40%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskAway draws 42% away = VERY HIGHCombined DR 75% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (38.6%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Rio Ave FCvs
0.92
Estrela da Ama…Goal Probability
Rio Ave FC
0
24%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4
4%
Estrela da …
0
40%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)0-1 (10%)1-2 (9%)1-0 (8%)0-2 (8%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 3.5 | 30% | 71% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#13
Rio Ave FC-1
Gap#12
Estrela da …
WR 17% 24 pts
WR 17% 25 pts
Rio Ave FC
6.0%
| Mar 09 | Rio Ave… v Tondela | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Rio Ave… v Famalic… | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Rio Ave… v FC Porto | 1-0 |
| Feb 16 | Rio Ave… v Moreire… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Rio Ave… v SC Braga | 3-0 |
| Jan 31 | Rio Ave… v Arouca | 0-3 |
| Jan 25 | Rio Ave… v Nacional | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Rio Ave… v Benfica | 0-2 |
| Jan 04 | Rio Ave… v Casa Pi… | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Rio Ave… v Sportin… | 4-0 |
Estrela da Ama…
8.0%
| Mar 08 | Estrela… v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Estrela… v AVS | 0-0 |
| Feb 20 | Estrela… v Tondela | 0-2 |
| Feb 14 | Estrela… v Guimara… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Estrela… v Santa C… | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Estrela… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Estrela… v Benfica | 4-0 |
| Jan 19 | Estrela… v Estoril | 0-5 |
| Jan 03 | Estrela… v SC Braga | 3-3 |
| Dec 27 | Estrela… v Famalic… | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Oct 25, 2025 | Estrela da Am… | 1-2 | Rio Ave FC |
| May 05, 2025 | Rio Ave FC | 2-0 | Estrela da Am… |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 1-0 | Rio Ave FC |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 2-2 | Rio Ave FC |
| Dec 02, 2023 | Rio Ave FC | 1-1 | Estrela da Am… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
67%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Rio Ave FC struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.