Primeira Liga · Mar 14, 2026 15:30
Guimaraes
PWR 35
Famalicao
PWR 35
Guimaraes
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Famalicao
PWR 35
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (19%)3-0 (18%)1-0 (14%)0-0 (5%)2-1 (4%)3-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
BTTS
No
No 17%
Over 3.5
28%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Guimaraes
WLWDW
STABLE
Famalicao
WDWLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 31% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskCombined DR 64% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.82
Guimaraesvs
0.20
FamalicaoGoal Probability
Guimaraes
0
6%
1
17%
2
24%
3
22%
4
16%
Famalicao
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)1-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)0-1 (8%)2-0 (8%)1-2 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Guimaraes-3
Gap#6
Famalicao
WR 46% 32 pts
WR 33% 39 pts
Guimaraes
14.0%
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Mafra | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Santa C… | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Varzim | 3-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v União S… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 3-2 |
| Feb 15 | Guimara… v CF Os B… | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Guimara… v Estrela… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Guimara… v Arouca | 3-2 |
| Feb 06 | Guimara… v Academi… | 1-0 |
Famalicao
14.0%
| Mar 06 | Famalic… v Arouca | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Famalic… v Rio Ave… | 0-0 |
| Feb 23 | Famalic… v Casa Pi… | 2-0 |
| Feb 15 | Famalic… v Sportin… | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | Famalic… v AVS | 3-1 |
| Feb 01 | Famalic… v GIL Vic… | 5-0 |
| Jan 25 | Famalic… v Tondela | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Famalic… v Santa C… | 0-1 |
| Jan 04 | Famalic… v Alverca | 1-0 |
| Dec 27 | Famalic… v Estrela… | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Oct 26, 2025 | Famalicao | 2-0 | Guimaraes |
| Feb 08, 2025 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Guimaraes |
| Sep 01, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-1 | Famalicao |
| Mar 09, 2024 | Guimaraes | 1-0 | Famalicao |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
44%
Market
50%
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Guimaraes in strong form (3W in last 5)
Famalicao in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.