La Liga · Mar 13, 2026 20:00
Alavés
PWR 32
Villarreal
PWR 43
Alavés
PWR 32
1-1
predicted
Villarreal
PWR 43
31%
28%
41%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (42% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-0 (9%)3-1 (8%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (7%)1-0 (5%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.88x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.46x
Over 2.5
67%
67%
Under 2.5
33%
BTTS
Yes 57%
Over 3.5
51%
Team Comparison
27Attack56
63Defense67
Goals/G
0.91.9
Conc/G
1.21.1
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Alavés
LLDDL
DOWN
Villarreal
WLWWL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityHome team draws 31% at home = very high riskH2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.35
Alavésvs
0.90
VillarrealGoal Probability
Alavés
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
Villarreal
0
41%
1
37%
2
17%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)2-2 (7%)1-2 (6%)3-1 (6%)2-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 89% | 12% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% | - |
| 4.5 | 32% | 69% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 17% | 83% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 8% | 92% | UNDER |
League Position
#16
Alavés-12
Gap#4
Villarreal
WR 39% 27 pts
WR 46% 54 pts
Alavés
4.0%
| Mar 08 | Alavés v Valencia | 3-2 |
| Feb 27 | Alavés v Levante | 2-0 |
| Feb 23 | Alavés v Girona | 2-2 |
| Feb 14 | Alavés v Sevilla | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Alavés v Getafe | 0-2 |
| Feb 04 | Alavés v Real So… | 2-3 |
| Jan 30 | Alavés v Espanyol | 1-2 |
| Jan 25 | Alavés v Real Be… | 2-1 |
| Jan 18 | Alavés v Atlétic… | 1-0 |
| Jan 14 | Alavés v Rayo Va… | 2-0 |
Villarreal
12.0%
| Mar 08 | Villarr… v Elche | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Villarr… v FC Barc… | 4-1 |
| Feb 22 | Villarr… v Valencia | 2-1 |
| Feb 18 | Villarr… v Levante | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Villarr… v Getafe | 2-1 |
| Feb 09 | Villarr… v Espanyol | 4-1 |
| Jan 31 | Villarr… v Osasuna | 2-2 |
| Jan 28 | Villarr… v Bayer 0… | 3-0 |
| Jan 24 | Villarr… v Real Ma… | 0-2 |
| Jan 20 | Villarr… v Ajax | 1-2 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 10, 2026 | Villarreal | 3-1 | Alavés |
| Mar 08, 2025 | Alavés | 1-0 | Villarreal |
| Nov 09, 2024 | Villarreal | 3-0 | Alavés |
| Nov 09, 2024 | Villarreal | 3-0 | Alavés |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Alavés | 1-1 | Villarreal |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Alavés | 1-1 | Villarreal |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Alavés |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Alavés | 2-1 | Villarreal |
| Dec 21, 2021 | Villarreal | 5-2 | Alavés |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Alavés | 2-1 | Villarreal |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
30%
Market
35%
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Villarreal in strong form (3W in last 5)
Alavés struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.