Liga Portugal 2 · Mar 15, 2026 18:00
Moreirense
PWR 45
Penafiel FC
PWR 35
Moreirense
PWR 45
2-1
predicted
Penafiel FC
PWR 35
33%
27%
40%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Moreirense Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (25%)0-1 (24%)0-2 (11%)1-0 (11%)1-1 (10%)1-2 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
16%
Under 2.5
84%
84%
BTTS
No
No 21%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
43Attack0
54Defense100
Goals/G
1.20.0
Conc/G
1.30.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Moreirense
LLDDD
DOWN
Penafiel FC
DDDWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
POINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (29.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.43
Moreirensevs
0.95
Penafiel FCGoal Probability
Moreirense
0
65%
1
28%
2
6%
3
1%
4
0%
Penafiel FC
0
39%
1
37%
2
18%
3
6%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (26%)0-1 (23%)1-0 (12%)1-1 (11%)0-2 (10%)1-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 39% | 61% | - |
| 2.5 | 16% | 85% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#1
Moreirense+5
Gap#6
Penafiel FC
WR 36% 352 pts
WR 27% 101 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 263 | 94 | 70 | 99 | 320 | 346 | 352 |
| Penafiel FC | 92 | 25 | 26 | 41 | 97 | 119 | 101 |
Moreirense
6.0%
| Mar 09 | Moreireā¦ v Benficaā¦ | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 0-3 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Nacional | 1-1 |
| Mar 02 | Moreireā¦ v Felgueiā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Pacos Fā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Moreireā¦ v FC Portā¦ | 0-3 |
| Feb 22 | Moreireā¦ v LusitĆ¢nā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Moreireā¦ v UniĆ£o dā¦ | 2-4 |
| Feb 21 | Moreireā¦ v Benficaā¦ | 1-0 |
Penafiel FC
14.0%
| Mar 07 | Penafieā¦ v Farense | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Penafieā¦ v Benficaā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 22 | Penafieā¦ v Felgueiā¦ | 0-0 |
| Feb 16 | Penafieā¦ v LusitĆ¢nā¦ | 2-0 |
| Feb 06 | Penafieā¦ v Chaves | 0-1 |
| Jan 30 | Penafieā¦ v LeixƵesā¦ | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Penafieā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 2-1 |
| Jan 17 | Penafieā¦ v Portimoā¦ | 0-2 |
| Jan 04 | Penafieā¦ v Pacos Fā¦ | 1-2 |
| Dec 21 | Penafieā¦ v Moreireā¦ | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Jan 25, 2026 | Moreirense | 2-1 | Penafiel FC |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 1-0 | Moreirense |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 1-2 | Moreirense |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 0-0 | Moreirense |
| May 05, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 0-1 | Moreirense |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Penafiel FC | 1-2 | Moreirense |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Moreirense | 2-2 | Penafiel FC |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Moreirense | 0-1 | Penafiel FC |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Penafiel FC | 4-3 | Moreirense |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Moreirense | 2-0 | Penafiel FC |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
44%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.