FAW Championship · Mar 14, 2026 14:00
Baglan Dragons
PWR 42
PWR 42
1-2
predicted
Caerau (Ely)
PWR 51
PWR 51
33%
27%
40%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Caerau (Ely) to win (55% confidence)
Score
1-2
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (10%)1-2 (10%)0-1 (9%)0-2 (8%)1-3 (6%)2-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
BTTS
Yes 59%
Over 3.5
52%
Team Comparison
44Attack62
55Defense47
Goals/G
1.21.8
Conc/G
1.31.5
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Baglan Dragons
WLLLL
STABLE
Caerau (Ely)
WWWLL
UP
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): FAW Championship
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Baglan Dragonsvs
1.95
Caerau (Ely)Goal Probability
Baglan Drag…
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
3%
Caerau (Ely)
0
14%
1
28%
2
27%
3
18%
4
9%
CORRECT SCORES
0-2 (9%)1-2 (9%)0-3 (8%)1-3 (8%)0-1 (7%)1-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 4.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#19
Baglan Drag…-4
Gap#15
Caerau (Ely)
WR 26% 62 pts
WR 42% 77 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | 53 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 66 | 68 | 62 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 53 | 22 | 11 | 20 | 94 | 80 | 77 |
Baglan Dragons
4.0%
| Mar 06 | Baglan … v Newport… | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Baglan … v Pontypr… | 2-0 |
| Feb 17 | Baglan … v Trefelin | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Baglan … v Cardiff… | 3-1 |
| Feb 07 | Baglan … v Aberyst… | 0-1 |
| Jan 24 | Baglan … v Ynyshir… | 0-0 |
| Jan 03 | Baglan … v Llantwi… | 0-0 |
| Dec 26 | Baglan … v Afan Li… | 3-1 |
| Dec 20 | Baglan … v Trethom… | 2-1 |
| Nov 28 | Baglan … v Ammanfo… | 0-3 |
Caerau (Ely)
12.0%
| Mar 10 | Caerau … v Treowen… | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Caerau … v Afan Li… | 4-1 |
| Mar 01 | Caerau … v Aberyst… | 0-4 |
| Feb 21 | Caerau … v Caernar… | 3-4 |
| Feb 13 | Caerau … v Cambria… | 3-0 |
| Feb 07 | Caerau … v Ammanfo… | 3-1 |
| Jan 31 | Caerau … v Bangor … | 2-1 |
| Jan 23 | Caerau … v Trethom… | 1-5 |
| Jan 16 | Caerau … v Trefelin | 1-2 |
| Jan 09 | Caerau … v Newport… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Sep 17, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) | 2-1 | Baglan Dragons |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Caerau (Ely) | 1-0 | Baglan Dragons |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
39%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Caerau (Ely) in strong form (3W in last 5)
Baglan Dragons struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.