Primera División - Apertura · Mar 15, 2026 20:00
Deportivo Maldonado
PWR 35
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
Deportivo Maldonado
PWR 35
4-1
predicted
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Deportivo Maldonado Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (18%)2-0 (16%)3-0 (10%)0-0 (10%)1-1 (9%)2-1 (8%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
BTTS
No
No 33%
Over 3.5
4%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Deportivo Mald…
DWLWW
STABLE
Defensor Sport…
DLLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Points within 3 = 32.1% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Deportivo Mald…vs
0.50
Defensor Sport…Goal Probability
Deportivo M…
0
16%
1
29%
2
27%
3
16%
4
8%
Defensor Sp…
0
61%
1
30%
2
8%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (30%)1-0 (26%)2-0 (11%)0-1 (10%)1-1 (9%)2-1 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 71% | 30% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 35% | 66% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 13% | 88% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Deportivo M…+5
Gap#7
Defensor Sp…
WR 100% 10 pts
WR 33% 8 pts
Deportivo Mald…
14.0%
| Mar 06 | Deporti… v Wandere… | 0-0 |
| Mar 02 | Deporti… v Juventus | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Deporti… v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
| Feb 14 | Deporti… v Progreso | 2-0 |
| Feb 08 | Deporti… v Racing … | 2-4 |
| Jan 14 | Deporti… v Club Na… | 0-0 |
| Nov 15 | Deporti… v Colón | 0-0 |
| Nov 08 | Deporti… v Colón | 1-1 |
| Oct 26 | Deporti… v La Luz | 1-1 |
| Oct 19 | Deporti… v Cerrito | 0-1 |
Defensor Sport…
10.0%
| Mar 08 | Defenso… v Central… | 0-0 |
| Mar 03 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 26 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | Defenso… v Liverpo… | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 1-1 |
| Jan 17 | Defenso… v Unión S… | 1-1 |
| Jan 12 | Defenso… v Progreso | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Defenso… v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Nov 02 | Defenso… v Peñarol… | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Nov 25, 2023 | Deportivo Mal… | 2-1 | Defensor Spor… |
Decision Breakdown
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
84%
Standings
70%
Market
50%
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Deportivo Maldonado in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.