UEFA Champions League · Mar 17, 2026 20:00
Arsenal
PWR 21
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
PWR 42
Arsenal
PWR 21
4-1
predicted
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
PWR 42
53%
23%
24%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Arsenal Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (15%)1-1 (13%)0-0 (12%)0-1 (10%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (8%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
64%
BTTS
No 41%
Over 3.5
25%
Team Comparison
20Attack60
40Defense59
Goals/G
0.72.0
Conc/G
2.01.4
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Arsenal
DDWWW
STABLE
Bayer 04 Lever…
DDWDD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Away team drew 4/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (29.2%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Arsenalvs
0.85
Bayer 04 Lever…Goal Probability
Arsenal
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
Bayer 04 Le…
0
43%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (13%)0-1 (11%)1-2 (9%)1-0 (9%)0-2 (8%)0-0 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 92% | 8% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% | - |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 5% | 96% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#5
Arsenal+16
Gap#21
Bayer 04 Le…
WR 57% 40 pts
WR 31% 17 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 40 |
| Bayer 04 Leve… | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
Arsenal
16.0%
| Mar 11 | Arsenal v Bayer 0… | 1-1 |
| Mar 08 | Arsenal v Slavia … | 0-0 |
| Mar 07 | Arsenal v Mansfie… | 1-2 |
| Mar 04 | Arsenal v Brighto… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Arsenal v Chelsea | 2-1 |
| Feb 28 | Arsenal v FC Gomel | 4-0 |
| Feb 22 | Arsenal v Tottenh… | 1-4 |
| Feb 22 | Arsenal v Mandals… | 0-5 |
| Feb 18 | Arsenal v Wolverh… | 2-2 |
| Feb 17 | Arsenal v Moss | 3-0 |
Bayer 04 Lever…
12.0%
| Mar 11 | Bayer 0… v Arsenal | 1-1 |
| Mar 07 | Bayer 0… v SC Frei… | 3-3 |
| Mar 04 | Bayer 0… v Hamburg… | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Bayer 0… v FSV Mai… | 1-1 |
| Feb 24 | Bayer 0… v Olympia… | 0-0 |
| Feb 21 | Bayer 0… v Union B… | 1-0 |
| Feb 18 | Bayer 0… v Olympia… | 0-2 |
| Feb 14 | Bayer 0… v FC St. … | 4-0 |
| Feb 07 | Bayer 0… v Borussi… | 1-1 |
| Feb 03 | Bayer 0… v FC St. … | 3-0 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bayer 04 Leve… | 1-1 | Arsenal |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
65%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Arsenal in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.