UEFA Champions League · Mar 11, 2026 20:00
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
Chelsea
PWR 42
Paris Saint Germain
PWR 49
2 - 1
FT
Chelsea
PWR 42
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Paris Saint Germain Win
Score
3-2
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (7%)3-1 (7%)2-2 (7%)1-2 (6%)2-0 (5%)
CORRECT 2-1
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
72%
72%
Under 2.5
28%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 72%
Over 3.5
70%
70%
Team Comparison
65Attack53
76Defense66
Goals/G
2.21.8
Conc/G
0.81.1
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Paris Saint Ge…
LWDWW
STABLE
Chelsea
WWLDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk28%
Accuracy38%
FORM_MOMENTUM
Standings data available (Tier 2)Similar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (27.6%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.37
Paris Saint Ge…vs
1.58
ChelseaGoal Probability
Paris Saint…
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
Chelsea
0
21%
1
33%
2
26%
3
14%
4
5%
CORRECT SCORES
2-2 (7%)2-1 (6%)3-2 (6%)3-1 (6%)1-2 (5%)1-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 70% | 30% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 5.5 | 35% | 65% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
League Position
#11
Paris Saint…-5
Gap#6
Chelsea
WR 50% 14 pts
WR 25% 16 pts
Paris Saint Ge…
14.0%
| Mar 06 | Paris S… v AS Mona… | 1-3 |
| Feb 28 | Paris S… v LE Havr… | 0-1 |
| Feb 25 | Paris S… v AS Mona… | 2-2 |
| Feb 21 | Paris S… v Metz | 3-0 |
| Feb 17 | Paris S… v AS Mona… | 2-3 |
| Feb 13 | Paris S… v Rennes … | 3-1 |
| Feb 08 | Paris S… v Olympiq… | 5-0 |
| Feb 01 | Paris S… v Strasbo… | 1-2 |
| Jan 28 | Paris S… v Newcast… | 1-1 |
| Jan 23 | Paris S… v Auxerre | 0-1 |
Chelsea
14.0%
| Mar 07 | Chelsea v Wrexham | 2-4 |
| Mar 04 | Chelsea v Aston V… | 1-4 |
| Mar 01 | Chelsea v Arsenal | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Chelsea v Burnley | 1-1 |
| Feb 13 | Chelsea v Hull Ci… | 0-4 |
| Feb 10 | Chelsea v Leeds | 2-2 |
| Feb 07 | Chelsea v Wolverh… | 1-3 |
| Feb 03 | Chelsea v Arsenal | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Chelsea v West Br… | 3-2 |
| Jan 28 | Chelsea v Napoli | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Jul 13, 2025 | Chelsea | 3-0 | Paris Saint G… |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
72%
Standings
40%
Market
50%
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Paris Saint Germain in strong form (3W in last 5)
Chelsea in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.